Thursday, January 17, 2019

January 17, the Polls they are 'a movin'

Lots of new news on the Israeli election front.

MK Michael Oren:  For us here at B'nai Shalom it is interesting to note that our favorite son, MK Michael Oren, has left Kulanu.  The relationship there has been sketchy for a while now, with MK Oren striking out on his own in a number of different ways, from support of American Jewish denominations to his close relationship with Bibi (mostly) as Deputy Prime Minister.  He is widely recognized as an expert in international relations, but has not established broad credentials in the domestic political arena.  Kulanu's main platforms are domestic, and under fire.  MK Oren is looking for the best fit for a new home with another party.  The "easiest" place to try to start again might be with Benny Ganz and his Hosen L'Yisrael party.  Ganz has yet to publish a list of Knesset nominees, nor a political platform, so MK Oren might find it a place where he can enter at a high enough number to be back in the Knesset.  The current polls give Hosen L'Yisrael at least 10 seats, and Kulanu only 5.  MK Oren doesn't need to be "top five" with Hosen to make it back, and he wouldn't be displacing anyone from a current party's list to be in play.  His actual relationship with Ganz is not clear, however, so this is conjecture.

Changes Since my last post:  As predicted, Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) and HaTenuah (Livni) are in trouble.  The questions are 1) How bad is it for them, and 2) Who will benefit the most?  The main problem is that several new parties are polling well, and those seats have to come from somewhere:

New Parties in the Current Poll:

Hosen L'Yisrael (Ganz)                              - 12 seats
HaYamin HaChadash (Bennet/Shaked)     -   8 
Gesher (Levy-Abekasis)                            -   4 seats 

Those 24 seats have to come from somewhere.

Curent Parties Polling Down:

Labor               - 7  (down from 18)
HaT'nuah         - 4 (from 6)
Kulanu              - 5 (down from 10)
Yisrael Beiteinu - 5 (down from 6) (worse in some polls)
Jewish Home    - 4 (down from 5)
Shas                  - 5 (down from 7)

Those account for 22 of the "lost" seats to the new parties.

Current Parties that are within 1 seat of their previous number:

Joint Arab List (with Ta'al)

Current Parties Polling Up:

Yesh Atid        -  Maybe up 1-3 seats
Likud               - up one to 32

And that's it.  Note that the Zionist Camp (Labor + Atid) is broken apart, and is down to 7 or 8 seats from a total of 24 in the current Knesset.  

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