Musings: Trump-Harris in 2021?!

Imagine President Donald Trump and his Vice-President, Kamala Harris.

It could happen.

There are 538 electoral college votes, representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia.  As an even number, it is possible to result in a tie.  Can it happen this year?  Yes, but there are very few reasonable scenarios.

According to the poll of polls, 270towin.com and realclearpolitics.com, most states are not competitive.  Eliminating the "leaning" states, where a candidate has less than 10% margin in the polls, President Trump has 125/270 and VP Biden has 212/270 "in the bag."  A tie results if both get to exactly 269.  There are, in fact, over 100 possible combinations that would result in a tie at that point, so we need to narrow that down.

What happens if we declare today (10/31/20 - 4 days before the election - that candidates with a 5-10% lead in the polls should "win" those states? That puts MN, WI, MI, NV in the Biden Column for 252/270, and OH in the Trump column for 143/270.  

But the remaining states, AZ, TX, FL, GA, NC, IA, PA, NH, ME, ME(2) and NE(2) are all very much in play, and we are left with 7 tie combinations.  

In ALL 7 combinations, Trump must:

• win TX, FL and PA, AND 
• win exactly two of  GA, NC or AZ.

So, if Trump wins those first three, and exactly two of the second group of three, there are still 7 scenarios among IA, NH, ME, ME(2) and NE(2) that result in a tie.

IS IT REALISTIC?

In my mind, ME and NH are Biden's, so there is only one realistic tie scenario left:

Trump:    TX, FL, PA, GA, NC,  IA, ME(2) and NE(2)

Biden:    AZ

The real problem is Nebraska's second district, where polling holds Biden with a 6.4% lead.  I know, I cheated.  I told you that I would give the 5%+ polls to their candidates earlier in the post!  Nebraska's second district, which has its own 1 Electoral College vote, includes urban Omaha and its suburbs, so Biden is doing well there.  But it only went blue once in the last 5 presidential elections (Obama 2008).

This past week, President Trump was on the ground in Maine and Nebraska.  Did you wonder why?  It is for those two single solitary votes that could result in a tie.  He needs them both. 

President Trump and Vice-President Harris!

The US Constitution puts the election for president into the NEW House of Representatives in the event of a lack of a majority in the electoral college.  The house's state delegations each get 1 vote.  The Republicans hold that majority, so Trump would win the election in the House and be named President.  

The Senate, in turn, picks the VP in the same process. In the Senate, there are 14 split delegations, 19 Republicans and 17 Democrats.  Should Democrats pick up a net gain of +3 in the splits, Kamala Harris would become Donald Trump's Vice-President!

In Conclusion.

I believe that NE (2) will go to Biden, which eliminates all of this craziness, so...

No. There will not be a tie in the Electoral College this year.  But it is fun to think about in theory only.

Don't Panic! We will know on Nov. 4

Don't Panic!  

Two Good Reasons Why We May Know Right Away

1) In 2016, 16 states received over 50% of their votes by mail, early voting or absentee ballots. They are highlighted in green in this article. Every one of them had results available on election night in 2016 to call the election accurately for Trump - well before 11:00 p.m. EST, even though the election was close. This year should be no different.

2) 19 States have rules allowing for early processing of mail in ballots.  They should be in good position to report their results soon after the polls close. 4 crucial “toss-up” states are on that list: Arizona (11), Florida (29), North Carolina (16), and Ohio (18),

As a result, it is safe to say that 25 states have rules and/or experience to make early results a reasonable expectation. Of the other 25 states/D.C., 22 are not competitive and can be easily predicted. Only 3 states are both inexperienced at large scale mail in, and also have rules that delay their ability to count on election day: PA, WI, and IA.

Conclusion: DON'T PANIC! We should have results or excellent predictions from 47 states & Washington D.C. on Election Night. The process of counting will continue for a week, and state certifications will be delayed by lawsuits and recounts. But we WILL know who won the election by the morning of Wednesday, November 4, 2020, even if the courts, politicians and media drag out the story. Remember "Sore Loserman?" This will be no different... although... there is ONE election night scenario which will lead to a delay...

What Will We Know on Election Night?

Based on the chart, below...

A) Electoral Votes from Non Competitive Contests with Results Expected on Election Night:

Biden        129

Trump        117

B) Total of Electoral Votes "known" on Election Night, including Results from Non Competitive Contests that will come after Election Night:

Biden         249

Trump        164

THE POINT: We will "know" on Election Night that Biden needs 21 of the remaining 107 "toss-up" electors to win the election, otherwise it is Trump's victory. So let's look at that.

B) Of the 107 electors from "toss-up" states, 4 can process votes before election day: Arizona (11), Florida (29), Ohio (18) and North Carolina (16).  3 of those have extensive past experience with mail in voting. These states will be in position to deliver preliminary numbers pretty quickly, though the losing party will surely demand recounts and begin lawsuits.

THE POINT:  If Biden can win Florida OR any 2 of those 4 states, he will win the election. We will know if that is the case ON ELECTION NIGHT, NOVEMBER 3, 2020.  However, it is entirely possible that Biden fails to win AZ, FL, OH or NC.  That is the one case scenario....

C)  Should Trump win AZ, FL, OH and NC - all of which we should know on election night - then Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10) are the only "toss ups" left and 3 of them are among the likely last reporters of their results:

Biden     249        Needs 21 = Any 2 except WI+IA.

Trump    237        Needs 33 = Any 3, or PA + GA.

D)  Unfortunately, PA and WI are both "late night counters" for mail in ballots, and Iowa only needs a postmark of election day.  If Georgia comes in with a result for Trump (253), and Wisconsin for Biden (259), as are very possible, the fight will center on Pennsylvania (20), as Iowa (6) will be insufficient by itself for either candidate to reach the 270 needed to win. [10/20 see below* for update]

E) Final analysis:  We will know on election night if Trump has won AZ, FL, OH, GA and NC, and therefore remained viable for the election.  If he does, then we will probably have to wait for PA's 20 electors to decided the contest.  If he loses any of those, it is Biden's victory.  

And regarding Pennsylvania: of the 74 polls listed on 270towin.com since January 1, only 3 have gone for Trump and none since July 22.  While this may be enough to blow a gasket, and sounds hauntingly familiar to 2016, it would seem that Joe Biden will come through eventually in this worst case scenario.

Mail in Voting Time Line by State

Green = more than 50% mail in/early voting in 2016.

State	Rec’d By	Begin Counting	# days to count	Finish Date	# Electors	likely winner
Arizona, Florida	Nov 3	14+ Prior		Election Night	11, 29	?
Colorado, Conn., Hawaii, Mass., Minnesota, New Mexico	Nov 3	14+ Prior		Election Night	9, 7, 4, 11, 10, 5	Biden
Kansas, Utah	postmark	14+ Prior		Nov 6	6, 6	Trump
N. Carolina, Ohio	postmark	14+ Prior		Nov 6	15, 18	?
Delaware, Oregon	Nov 3	1-7 Prior		Election Night	3, 7	Biden
Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina	Nov 3	1-7 Prior		Election Night	8, 5, 7, 9	Trump
California	postmark	1-7 Prior		Nov 6	55	Biden
Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Wyoming	Nov 3	Nov 3 a.m.		Election Night	6, 11, 8, 10, 3, 11, 3	Trump
Michigan, Vermont	Nov 3	Nov 3 a.m.		Election Night	16, 3	Biden
Georgia, Pennsylvania,* Wisconsin	Nov 3	Nov 3 a.m.		Election Night	16, 20, 10	?
Texas, West Virginia,	Postmark	Nov 3 a.m.		Nov 6	38, 5	Trump
D.C., New Jersey, Virginia	Postmark	Nov 3 a.m.		Nov 6	3, 14, 13	Biden
Iowa,	Postmark	Nov 3 a.m.		Nov 6	6,	?
Alabama, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota	Nov 3	Nov 3 p.m.		Nov 6	9, 4, 3, 3	Trump
Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Nevada	Nov 3	Nov 3 p.m.		Nov 6	4, 4, 4, 6	Biden
Alaska, Mississippi	postmark	Nov 3 p.m.		Nov 6	3, 6	Trump
Illinois, New York, Washington	postmark	Nov 3 p.m.		Nov 6	20, 29, 12	Biden
Maryland	Nov 3	Nov 4 a.m.		Nov 8	10	Biden

[*UPDATE 10/20/2020: US Supreme Court, by a 4-4 tie, leaves a lower court ruling in place allowing PA to follow "postmarks" rather than the "received by" date of Nov. 3.  With a new Justice joining the court, this will absolutely be a subject of review after the election, seriously slowing down a PA result].

-----------------------------

Postscripts and Questions.

Q: How Does Mail In Voting Swing the Vote?

Joe Biden holds a 44 point advantage among those planing of voting by mail, and Donald Trump holds a 32 point advantage on those planing to vote in person.  In part this is due to the fact that some major Democratic strongholds, such as California and New Jersey (along with Vermont, Nevada, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Colorado, Utah, Washington and Oregon) are holding 100% mail in elections this year.  Nevertheless, the campaigns have been pushing their respective voters differently on this topic, so in the swing states it may be voter “turnout” (Mail/In Person) that will determine the winner.

Q: Is Mail in Voting New?

Contrary to popular belief, every state has mail in and in person voting this year. According to the NY Times, 75% of registered voters are eligible for mail in ballots, upon request, nationwide. Roughly, 50

+ million people are expected to vote early or by mail, or 40+ % of all ballots this year.

Q: “When will we absolutely positively know for sure?” 

The short answer is Tuesday, December 8. After Bush/Gore in 2000, the election was contested into December because Florida’s results were in the courts.  Due to Constitutional restraints, all states must report their electors in time for them to meet on the second Wednesday in December (December 9, 2020).  All court cases will have to be resolved by that constitutional deadline. The Supreme Court's ruling in Bush v. Gore was in part forced upon them due to that time constraint, leaving the state-certified result as final regardless of any underlying irregularities or unresolved legal issues. There is NO redress possible beyond that date.