The numbers are getting better again. Shouldn't that mean something?
In the height of the Omicron surge, my synagogue imposed a 100% indoor mask mandate, regardless of vaccination status and cancelled all indoor eating and drinking. I completely agreed with that.
During the conversation, however, it was suggested that "in retrospect" perhaps the fact that in May 2020 we were shut down, in July 2020 we were masked, in summer 2021 we were unmasked but now we are fully masked again.... that this shows "we were too hasty in lightening up on our mandates before." I disagree with that assessment. Here is why:
Being vigilant means being very attentive to the scientific progression of the virus in our community. It means surveillance, because facts matter. At times, such as the Delta surge, a deadly variant was increasing in our region. High transmission rates resulted in high infection rates, ultimately showing higher hospitalizations and increased deaths. Our vigilant monitoring of those facts indicated early that we should take on stricter modes of prevention before the numbers got out of hand, which we did in combination with the High Holy Days last fall. As the numbers decreased in November, it looked like we could lighten up a bit, but Omicron came raging in and we actually had to become more strict.
An attentive, responsible person following the science can change their protocols forward and backwards appropriately depending on the conditions on the ground. Like driving on dry, wet, snowy and then icy pavement, a good driver can make different decisions, back and forth, as the physics of the situation develop. Only a fool does not change their driving based on conditions. Masks and mandates are the same.
It is foolish to approach COVID as an absolute - in either direction. The mask denier, who ignores the facts that masks mitigate spread - simply because masks don't stop the spread - is engaged in a willful self-deception. Masks help. They don't cure. They are a weak prophylactic, but they are not completely worthless. In a time of surging contagion, it is reasonable to increase - even mandate - masks.
On the other hand, foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of simple minds, no? Forcing masks regardless of the measurement of COVID in the community is indefensible. There must come a time when the surveillance of COVID in the field tells us that the risks are low enough to remove our masks. Sure, we might debate the number that triggers that, but the number is a real number greater than zero. There does come a time. I believe that time is rapidly approaching. This morning Governor Murphy announced that masking mandates in NJ schools will be lifted in mid-March.
The only moral hesitation would be to protect the innocent. Last summer, due to high numbers of unvaccinated people - innocent or deliberate - any spread was a significant threat to a significant number of people. Now, with the unvaccinated being only infants and people who have chosen that risk, I would argue that the moral mandate to protect the vulnerable is rapidly coming to a close.
Here are the numbers today in Essex County NJ, where I live.
Infection Rate: 0.39 (Excellent, and trending even lower)
Daily New Cases/100k : 23.1 (Very good, and trending lower rapidly)
Hospital and Death: Very low and getting lower.
Vaccination: (86.6% and increasing)
So - My own personal conclusion is that we are nearly back to the numbers from last summer, and have hit the equivalent of driving on dry pavement - albeit in winter. I am ready to go 55 again but I will be vigilant in my surveillance of the facts on the ground, as always. In large and public indoor places I am likely to wear my mask for a while. If I am standing alone in a large room to give a talk or a sermon, distant from people, I might take my mask off to be better understood. In smaller environments, I am comfortable without masks. In quick trips in and out of a corner store, f I don't have my mask I am okay with that.
And - of course - I will always respectfully follow the rules of any establishment or home, public or private. But honestly, shouldn't we do that any ways?!
Changing protocols only mean that we are paying attention. Onwards.
Scan the QR code for the most up to date statistics in Essex County.
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