With 92% of the Israeli electorate telling polls that they are probably or definitely decided on who they will vote for on March 17, the picture is looking more clear:
My guess: Netanyahu will lead the next government with Likud (21), Yesh Atid (15), Bayit Yehudi (12), Israel Beiteinu (5), Kulanu (9) for a narrow majority of 62 seats.
Shas, UTJ and Yachad will be on the outside looking in. The Zionist Union and Meretz remain the main parties in opposition.
There are 4 "camps" in general:
1) Any "left" leaning coalition under Herzog/Livni will include Zionist Union, Yesh Atid and Meretz. That's 44 seats.
2) Any "right" leaning coalition under Netanyahu will include Likud, Bayit Yehudi, and Israel Beitenu. That's 38 seats.
3) The "Religious" Parties include Shas, UTJ, and Yachad. That's 17 seats.
4) The united Arab list has 13 seats.
...And the wild card is Kulanu, here with 8 seats. (rounded down to make the 120 total seats work).
The "left" and the "religious" will not form a government, due to ideological differences. Meretz and Netanyahu will never join together. That leaves a few possible scenarios:
A) A left-leaning coalition [59 + ??]: Herzog/Livni Core (44) + half the Arab list (7) + Kulanu (8) = only 59. You need 61. Either a government dependent upon the united Arab list would form, or this coalition doesn't work unless the 8% undecided voters all go to the left in the last week of the campaign. Coalitions have not been dependent upon Arab votes in the past, and that would be a remarkable development.
B) A right-leaning + religious coalition : Netanyahu Core (38) + Religious (17) + Kulanu (8) = 63. Serious concessions would need to be given the the religious parties, and the government would depend upon the settlement bloc's participation.
C) A centrist government under Netanyahu, without Herzog/Livni [60+ ??]: Netanyahu Core (38) + Yesh Atid (14) + Kulanu (8) = 60. You need 61. If Yesh Atid and Kulanu each gets an extra seat from the poll's undecided voters, it could work, but it would hang by a thread. This is what I predict will happen.
D) A broad "Unity" government under Netanyahu, with Herzog/Livni : Netanyahu Core (38), Zionist Union (24), Yesh Atid (14), Kulanu (8) = 84 and a supermajority. Given the Herzog/Livni "anti-Netanyahu" stance, this is unlikely.
E) A "Centrist" government is theoretically possible of course : the Netanyahu/Herzog/Livni groups together add up to (62) in this poll, but that is also unlikely.
Among the "undecided" voters, nearly all of them are leaning to one of three parties: Kulanu, Yesh Atid, and Bayit Yehudi. Undecided "Yesh Atid" Voters split between Kulanu and the Zionist Union. Therefore the likely "advantage" is to the center/right gaining a few seats at the last minute.
.... So, the most likely scenarios have Netanyahu forming a government, either pulling Yesh Atid to the right, or working with the religious parties in lock-step.
Here is the March 6 polling result. Polls cease in Israel several days prior to the election, so this may be the last word: