This election in Israel may not see a watershed change from right to left, but it is a dynamic and interesting process. Part of the fun for election watchers are the polls.
Israel, while a small nation, is one of the most engaged democracies in the world. According to pew research dot org, it has the fourth highest voter turnout by percentage of any voluntary voting system in the world, behind only Sweden, Denmark, South Korea and the Netherlands. The current election sees multiple "new" parties, and seeming death throes of some historic parties. PM Netanyahu's Likud party looks to be a behemoth once again, and is polling to gain one or two seats in the new Knesset.
While we normally don't use Wikipedia for research, there is a site that is regularly updating the polls which you may find interesting. The chart is organized with the current seat allocation first in a gray row, then the most recent poll next and the earlier polls in descending order. The far right column has a box that shows how many seats would be won according to the poll by the current coalition parties. That is to say, if the same people in Netanyahu's government again formed the same government in the new Knesset.
The main new player is Hosen Yisrael, Benny Ganz's new party. It continues to poll as second to Netanyahu so if Neyanyahu for some reason does not form a majority, it would fall on Ganz to organize the government. That is, as I say HIGHLY unlikely, but fun to think about. For example, according to the Jan 24 Direct Pulse Poll, what would happen if Ganz tried for form a left wing government:
Hosen Yisrael: 15
Yesh Atid: 11
That is only 52 seats.... 9 more seats would be needed, even if those parties could get along (which they can't).
Yisrael Beiteinu (5) and The Jewish Home (4) would be 9, if they survive, and were willing to join the party, but how they would get along with Meretz would be a mystery. Shas has 5 seats projected and have shown that they are willing to join a left coalition in the past, but would Meretz remain? The hard truth is that those 12 seats going to the Joint List (6) and Taal (6) Arab parties will need to be a part of any left leaning government in the foreseeable future. Can Israel imagine it? Not yet. But the math says that the day is coming.
Here is the link for the Wikipedia page with the polls. Enjoy.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Lots of new news on the Israeli election front.
MK Michael Oren: For us here at B'nai Shalom it is interesting to note that our favorite son, MK Michael Oren, has left Kulanu. The relationship there has been sketchy for a while now, with MK Oren striking out on his own in a number of different ways, from support of American Jewish denominations to his close relationship with Bibi (mostly) as Deputy Prime Minister. He is widely recognized as an expert in international relations, but has not established broad credentials in the domestic political arena. Kulanu's main platforms are domestic, and under fire. MK Oren is looking for the best fit for a new home with another party. The "easiest" place to try to start again might be with Benny Ganz and his Hosen L'Yisrael party. Ganz has yet to publish a list of Knesset nominees, nor a political platform, so MK Oren might find it a place where he can enter at a high enough number to be back in the Knesset. The current polls give Hosen L'Yisrael at least 10 seats, and Kulanu only 5. MK Oren doesn't need to be "top five" with Hosen to make it back, and he wouldn't be displacing anyone from a current party's list to be in play. His actual relationship with Ganz is not clear, however, so this is conjecture.
Changes Since my last post: As predicted, Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) and HaTenuah (Livni) are in trouble. The questions are 1) How bad is it for them, and 2) Who will benefit the most? The main problem is that several new parties are polling well, and those seats have to come from somewhere:
New Parties in the Current Poll:
Hosen L'Yisrael (Ganz) - 12 seats
HaYamin HaChadash (Bennet/Shaked) - 8
Gesher (Levy-Abekasis) - 4 seats
Those 24 seats have to come from somewhere.
Curent Parties Polling Down:
Labor - 7 (down from 18)
HaT'nuah - 4 (from 6)
Kulanu - 5 (down from 10)
Yisrael Beiteinu - 5 (down from 6) (worse in some polls)
Jewish Home - 4 (down from 5)
Shas - 5 (down from 7)
Those account for 22 of the "lost" seats to the new parties.
Current Parties that are within 1 seat of their previous number:
Joint Arab List (with Ta'al)
Current Parties Polling Up:
Yesh Atid - Maybe up 1-3 seats
Likud - up one to 32
And that's it. Note that the Zionist Camp (Labor + Atid) is broken apart, and is down to 7 or 8 seats from a total of 24 in the current Knesset.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
PM Netanyahu has announced new elections for April 9, 2019. What does this mean?
With a coalition of only 61 seats after Lieberman took Yisrael Beiteinu out last month, Netanyahu found himself unable to pass any meaningful legislation. The test case was the bill to draft the ultra-orthodox into the army, which was voted down in December. Netanyahu delayed the announcement to clean up a security issue on the northern border, and then announced new elections to be held on April 9, 2019.
The Makeup of the Last Knesset follows. Note that “zionist union” was a combination of Labor, led by Avi Gabbay and Hatnuah, led by Tzippi Livni. The highlighted parties were in the current coalition. A party needs to gain 3.25% to win seats, and the 120 seats are apportioned according to the winners’ relative vote totals to each other.
The Last Election (2015)
Party Leader % vote Seats +/-
Likud Benjamin Netanyahu 23.4% 30 +12
Zionist Union Isaac Herzog 18.67% 24 +3
Joint List Avman Odeh 10.54% 13 +2
Yesh Atid Yair Lapid 8.81% 11 -8
Kulanu Moshe Kahlon 7.49% 10 New
The Jewish Home Naftali Bennett 6.74% 8 -4
Shas Aryeh Deri 5.73% 7 -4
Yisrael Beiteinu Avigdor Lieberman 5.11% 6 -1
United Torah J. Yaakov Litzman 5.03% 6 -1
Meretz Zehava Gal-On 3.93% 5 -1
What will happen now?
First, parties come and parties go. Leaders jump ship, and try to vie for the list that will give them the best chance to be part of a powerful coalition. The United Arab List was a necessary combination of several Arab parties, in order to exceed the 3.25% minimum, and they won 10 seats as a result. Here's what to look for:
United Torah Judaism and Shas will likely run together. Both parties have internal leadership conflicts, and it is entirely possible that alone either of the Haredi parties could fall below 3.25%, leaving the Knesset without half of the haredi representation. Together, they could take 10% and win 12-14 seats, maintaining their current strength. The difference between 12 haredim and 6 haredim for coalition math is significant, so despite enormous and ugly conflicts, they may need to get along.
The Zionist Union has dissolved. Gabbay ousted Lipni in a nasty and public way. Expect Labor and Hatnuah to continue, smaller than ever, separately. There is now a tremendous vacuum left of center, which someone will undoubtedly fill. Each is likely to lose a few of the seats that they had, making any potential left wing coalition a near impossibility.
Yesh Atid, Kulanu, the Arab Joint List and Meretz will all continue without significant policy shifts. Of these, Kulanu - having tied itself to economic policy in a fiscal downturn - may be the most vulnerable. Yesh Atid could take advantage of the commotion on the left, or may fall victim to disaffected supporters who are tired of being on the outside, and want to support one of the new parties.
Yisrael Beiteinu will struggle for survival. Avigdor Lieberman is a visible and strong leader, who conflicted with Netanyahu over the handling of Hamas rockets last fall. He will position himself on security issues and supporting settlements. Will he remain solid, or slip? With a former army chief of staff (Ganz) in the race, he may not win with this position. This is a shocking situation, since he left the government in December expecting to get 10-12 seats in the new Knesset.
The Jewish Home may not survive. Without Naftali Bennet and Ayelet Shaked, this will become a much more religious settler party if it makes the 3.25% threshold. Deputy Defense Minister Eli Ben Dahan is the heir apparent to the party.
Likud has some unique internal term limits, and by rule 25% of the current list of 30 MK’s will not be eligible to be on the list this time around. Netanyahu, however, will lead the list and set the agenda for the elections. Unless something dramatic happens to shift the playing field, expect a strong Likud showing, akin to the last election.
Finally, remember that the PM is elected separately. Netanyahu will win against all comers, so this is irrelevant. He will have the first chance to form a coalition, and with a bevy of center-right and right wing parties - all weak - vying for his attention, he will have any government that he wants.
Summary: Expect a right wing coalition to again form a government. Polls are very preliminary, so the following is wild guesswork with something like this:
Party Projection leader (right/left/center)
Likud: 30 seats (Netanyahu) (right)
Then the wheeling and dealing begins for the 31 other seats needed to get a majority. A right wing government is possible without the haredim, but as always it is easier with them:
Haredi: 11 seats (Shas/UTJ) (religious right)
Hosen L’Yisrael: 10 seats (Ganz) (center?)
Kulanu: 8 seats (Kahlon) (right of center)
Jewish Home: 5 seats (Ben Dahan) (right of center)
The New Right 5 (Bennet/Shaked) (right)
Yisrael Beitenu 5 (Lieberman) (right)
Parties that have declared they are not willing to join Netanyahu, or are unlikely to be invited into the new government:
Joint Arab List: 13 seats (Arab)
Yesh Atid: 10 seats (Lapid) (center)
Avodah: 9 seats (Gabbay) (left)
Hatnuah: 6 seats (Livni) (left of Center)
Gesher: 4 seats (Levy-Abekasis) (center)
Meretz: 4 seats (Gal-On) (left)
If Ganz has the kind of showing that the polls indicate, then Netanyahu can consider a right wing coalition without the haredi parties. This would be attractive, as it would allow him to continue to support the settlers and right wingers while still passing the immensely popular draft law.
BOTTOM LINE: Netanyahu will again win the elections, and easily form a right wing coalition either with, or without the Haredi parties. Benny Ganz and MK Levy-Abekasis stand ready to be the big “newcomer” winners, while Shas/UTJ will need to get along in order to survive. A large reshuffling is happening in the center and left-of-center camps, and the Feb 21 deadline for parties to “combine” lists in the election, so stay tuned!
(Please note that the prior post "a first look" has been removed and replaced by this post.)