Democratic Primary Thoughts and Predictions

As South Carolina prepares to vote tomorrow, 

and Super Tuesday looms just after, 

much is about to be clarified 

in choosing the Democratic contender 

for the Presidency this fall.

There are three main scenarios:

1. Super Tuesday knocks out Warren, Klobuchar and Buttiegieg, who all suspend campaigning after Super Tuesday (likely), Biden wins at the convention.
2. South Carolina knocks out Warren, Klobuchar and Buttiegieg, who all suspend campaigning  before Super Tuesday (unlikely), Bernie wins outright in the primaries.
3. All 6 major candidates continue to the bitter end (unlikely), Bernie wins in the convention.

Here's why.

The Bloomberg Anomaly: 

By front loading the highly liberal, very white states of Iowa and NH, the Democratic National Committee exaggerated Pete Buttiegieg's chances. This contributed to the log jam of Biden, Buttiegieg and Klobuchar.  Ordinarily, based on national numbers, at least one of the three (Biden, Buttiegieg or Klobuchar) would have been gone after NH, and the other before Super Tuesday. 

By skipping those, and spending personal funds to the amount of a half billion dollars, It doesn't matter that Bloomberg has zero delegates after 4 contests; he continues to spend like a front runner and the winnowing effect will eventually feed him delegates. As a result we have 4 major moderates still in the race much later than would ordinarily occur.  This splits the votes, and trends towards a brokered convention without any candidate winning a majority outright.

The Convention.  1991 delegates are needed to win.  Looking at the Democratic Delegate Calculator, you can play around with various scenarios.  If no one wins on the first ballot, 500 superdelegates are added on the second ballot.  Very few of these will go to Bloomberg, so they would go mostly to Biden and some to Bernie - unless Bernie has a large lead to begin with.  Biden can overcome a 200 point deficit in this second ballot.  If there is still no winner on the second ballot, then all delegates are freed up to vote for anyone.  At that point Sanders/Warren, vs. Biden/Bloomberg/Klobuchar/Buttiegieg is the battle line.   

Here are the three scenarios:

"3 viable candidates"

if others drop AFTER Super Tuesday:

(Biden Wins)

Totals based on your forecast (not polling average)			Sanders	Biden	Bloomberg	Warren	Klobuchar	Buttigieg
National Poll Average			29.4%	17.6%	14.8%	13.2%	4.4%	10.4%
Delegate Estimate			1,574.3	1,384.3	657.8	259	49	42.5

In this, the most likely scenario, Warren sticks around long enough to take about 250 delegates.  Bloomberg gets about 650 by the time he is done.  Biden is only 200 behind Sanders, but the "Moderate Camp" can easily claim that the will of the people is not for Sanders (Sanders/Warren=1,833, while Biden/et al=over 2,000).  Bloomberg can throw his support to Biden and be the king maker all by himself. Biden wins, but the progressive wing may lose their enthusiasm to campaign and vote in the fall.  Will they hate Trump enough to show up for Biden? Probably.

"Nobody Drops to the End"

(Bernie wins):

While this is compelling, and is the kind of "news" you will see in the meantime, the winnowing effect is real and can not be ignored.  This scenario will, therefore, absolutely not happen:

			Sanders	Biden	Bloomberg	Warren	Klobuchar	Buttigieg
National Poll Average			29.4%	17.6%	14.8%	13.2%	4.4%	10.4%
Delegate Estimate			1,886.5	1,390	466	139	49	48.5
Withdrawal Date

Biden is too far behind Bernie for the Super Delegates to throw it to him.  Bernie wins even without the Warren votes putting him over the top in a third ballot/free for all vote.

"Three Viable Candidates"

Other Drop out BEFORE Super Tuesday?

(Bernie Wins):

If Warren, Klobuchar and Buttiegeg were to drop out before Super Tuesday, given horrible results in NV and SC, Bernie would come into the convention with at least a 400 delegate lead, and Biden + Bloomberg would not be enough to challenge for the nomination.  Even if he doesn't win on the first ballot, superdelegates would need to accept the will of the people, and nominate Bernie smoothly on the second ballot.

Progressives should be trying everything they can, including offering Warren the VP slot this weekend, to make this happen. 

Starting View:                                 Polling Average                                 All Blank (0%)			Sanders	Biden	Bloomberg	Warren	Klobuchar	Buttigieg
National Poll Average			29.4%	17.6%	14.8%	13.2%	4.4%	10.4%
Delegate Estimate			2,042	1,424	472	8	7	26