All the hostages must be released and returned or no progress is possible... but even if that happens today, and please may it, how do we get to that "day after" and what will it look like?
Yes, the War must end. Not just the fighting. Not just the violence.
The war itself must end.
The only existing organization that has committed itself to both the existence of Israel and the Independence of the Palestinian people is the Palestinian Authority. It is time for them to rule in Gaza, with the full faith and support of the International Community, Israel and the Palestinian People.
Some wars end with the seeds of the next war already in place. The treaty of Versailles is an example, leading ultimately to a rise in German nationalism and aggression against the Allied powers, and the Second World War.
Some wars end to create peace, by laying the groundwork to move beyond past grievances. There are two options. They can be balanced compromises, like the Treaty of Portsmouth, which formally ended the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905. Or they can be the result of unconditional surrender, like the Allied victories over Germany and Japan in WWII.
Past attempts at armistice - long term cease fires - have not worked. The 1948 "Green Line" around the West Bank and what many refer to as "Israel Proper" is an example of an armistice line. Israel's goal in the War of Independence, named the Nakba by the Palestinian cause, was to assert control over a defensible territory, that could be further developed and united into a coherent nation state. The Palestinian cause was to prevent that exact goal entirely, with the hope of a Palestinian nation state instead. With the end of fighting, and the drawing of the Green Line, the seeds of war were not removed. Military threats and conflicts continued in 1956, 1967, and 1972. After losing state sponsors for overt warfare in the 70's, the Palestinian cause transformed their tactics into assymetrical warfare through acts of terror and civil unrest (two different categories), including intifada in the 80's and 90's. After 1967, Israel re-drew the potential border to reflect its latest victories.
In 1993, the Oslo Accords laid the foundation for actual peace. The PLO became the Palestinian Authority, which in turn acknowledged Israel's ongoing right to exist, disavowed armed struggle ("resistance" in the current Hamas lexicon), and committed to peaceful negotiations to resolve issues such as the right of return and the status of Jerusalem. Israel acknowledged the Palestinian Authority as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian People, committed to a series of withdrawals and negotiations aimed at creating a Palestinian State and permanently ending occupation. The 1967 line was agreed upon to be the basis of future negotiations. There is an excellent reason why Rabin, Peres and Arafat shared the Nobel Peace Prize.
Which will it be for Gaza? Will it be an armistice/cease fire line as a prelude to ongoing violence, terrorism, and war? Or will the groundwork that rejects the underlying seeds of the conflict be established?
Make no mistake: There are many empowered voices in the current conflict in Israel and Hamas that are opposed to actual peace.
It is clear that there are strong voices in the current Israeli governing coalition, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, who disavow any desire or willingness to permit a Palestinian State, or to make peace. They are pursuing the unconditional surrender option. By denying the essential motivation of the Palestinian people, they validate Hamas' claims and they ensure only future war, occupation, and suppression of human rights.
On the other hand, Hamas has never chosen peace with Israel, even in theory. Hamas declared war on Israel from the beginning of their existence, and on October 7, 2023 they acted on that declaration in a brutal and shockingly effective attack. They continue to justify that attack, as do their supporters, with phrases like "by any means necessary." They continue to be in a state of war with Israel. They have also had a cycle of civil war and detente with the Palestinian Authority, condemning them for their past attempts at a permanent peace with Israel.
Hamas will never be a voice for peace. Even a complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces, a return of all the hostages and a cessation of violence by Hamas can not be considered peace without Hamas doing what the Palestinian Authority has done: disavow violence and recognize Israel's ongoing right to exist. If Hamas will not do that (and they certainly won't), then the only model for a future peace would be their termination as an active organization. They stand in the way.
The Palestinian Authority has Earned the Right to Rule. The truth is that - unlike Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis - The Palestinian Authority has sat out the current war between Israel and Hamas. That is why this is not a war between Israel and "the Palestinians." By sitting out this war, the Palestinian Authority has proven that their Oslo disavowal of violence, terrorism, and armed struggle are not only real, but reliable. And they should be amply rewarded. Only the Palestinian Authority has the legitimacy and personal stake in the game to be on the ground without being an outside occupier.
American-based protest movements that focus on being "anti-Israel" without any concern for the real difference between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are either naive or deliberately in sync with Hamas. Hamas will never allow peace because its goal is not Palestinian Liberation, but the destruction of Israel en toto, and the establishment of an Islamicist State in its place. If the problem is framed as Israel's existence, the only solution ("by any means necessary") would be the violent elimination of Israel - slaughter and expulsion of millions of Jews. Those who march "against Israel" are not marching for peace, no matter how idealistic some participants may feel.
If there is to be any hope for peace, Hamas must not continue as a functioning organization. The termination of Hamas' active organization can be done in one of three ways:
- Hamas could surrender unconditionally. Highly Unlikely, and Israel is left to govern Gaza.
- Hamas' could agree to disavow their own charter and raison d'etre: Highly Unlikely, and Hamas is left to govern Gaza.
- An international accord could empower the Palestinian Authority to lead the rebuilding of Gaza, and to take over its governance, while disarming and disbanding Hamas as an institution in Gaza and the West Bank (Yehudah v'Shomron). This may also be unlikely, but it is more likely, and preferable.
Without one of these three outcomes, there is no option for Israel other than permanent military control of the entire region. Without the elimination of Hamas, military security is the only tool to protect Israeli citizens. And that would lead to ongoing injustice and future violence. The Israeli Military is not the solution. Armies do not make peace. Diplomats do.
Like it or not, Israeli or Palestinian, Jew Muslim or Christian, Democrat or Republican, we are left with only one reasonable conclusion with any hope for actual peace:
Yes, the War must end. Not just the fighting. Not just the violence. The war itself must end. And the only existing organization available that has committed itself to both the existence of Israel and the Independence of the Palestinian people is the Palestinian Authority. It is time for them to rule in Gaza, with the full faith and support of the International Community, Israel and the Palestinian People.
"Mic drop"
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