Friday, November 20, 2020

Certifiably finished this Monday, November 23.


After a truly insane press conference by Rudy Giulliani yesterday, people are asking if there is any way that those efforts might be successful.  The short answer is "no."

State laws mandated the elections on Nov. 3 as the process to determine Electors.  The more we look at it, the less even theoretical possibility there is for a last saving throw by the Trump lawyers to get 37 "rogue electors" appointed or to stop 3 states from certifying any electors at all.

Trump is running out of time if his intention is were to truly disrupt legal certifications in key states:

  • Georgia (16) just certified for Biden, and the Governor is mandated to sign in the next 24 hours.  Stay tuned for that tomorrow.  
  • Pennsylvania  (20)  must certify by this Monday, November 23. [Democrat Governor signs the paper]
  • Michigan (16) must certify by this Monday, November 23.  [Democrat Governor signs the paper]
  • Arizona (11) must certify by the following Monday, November 30
  • Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) must certify by December 1.

We will have sufficient certification on Monday, since AZ, WI and NV only add up to 27.

There is zero chance that PA and MI will not certify their results on Monday.  That, with Georgia, puts the Electoral college out of reach for Trump - even with all his ridiculous shenanigans. Those certifications create a fact set on the ground, which were the basis for the Supreme Court's ruling for Bush v. Gore 538 U.S. 98 (2000).  State certifications are final.

On Fri, Nov 20, 2020 at 9:12 AM Rabbi Tobin wrote:
Correct.  He is hyping a money making machine based on the “fight.” 

The only play for the white house would be trying to convince 37 Electoral College votes worth of states to become paralyzed and not name their electors by December 9, leaving Biden with less than 270 (regardless of what Trump has).  In that rarified and highly improbable case, it would be thrown into the House. The House would give it to Trump. There is a nearly zero % chance - certainly less than a 3-5% chance.

What does 36 Electoral College votes look like?

Wisconsin 10
Michigan 16
Georgia 16
Nevada 6
Arizona 11
Pennsylvania 20

It would be political suicide for the individual state legislators to overturn the votes of their own state.  Could Trump sway/bribe/convince some people?  Sure.  Can he convince a majority of legislators in 3 states on this list to either not name electors, or appoint contrary electors?

Naming electors is an executive function of election officials, not legislators. So one slate will definitely get named.  The only “hope” would be to get the legislature to appoint a contrary list.  Will that happen in 3 states?

Absolutely not.  It won’t happen.  And he knows it.

This is about money, creating a narrative of slander and doubt against Biden and all Democrats, and positioning himself to lead a loyal fringe into the future.


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